Unofficial Tex Murphy

given that Bjyman threw a torch at me, i couldn`t resist the temptation to create a new one day valuable thread
so... $27,616, 375 backers and 6% more
what`s next?

Well, we want to hit 3% - 5% for the next two to four days, and then expect around 2% - 3% per day for about twenty days thereafter, with some minor spikes every five days on average. Ideally we'll then see a geometric spike upward after that for the last four or five days. I'm expecting at the current rate we'll raise between $380K and $460K.

Good job, looks like you didn't use the data from Kicktraq.

Hah, no I didn't. I've read a couple scholarly essays, one from a successful Kickstarter entrepreneur, the other from Kickstarter themselves, and I'm extrapolating from their data trends.

There's usually a steep drop-off in the first four days, wherein the second days brings about 30% - 50% the revenue of day one, followed by another 50% reduction, and another. There's then a general tapering off for the majority of the project timeframe, typically averaging 2% or 3% of the project's total goal per day, although 1% days aren't uncommon.

There are, however, often two to three bursts of higher pledging during that time, spiking as much as 4% or 5% of the goal, each.

At the very end of the project, there's typically a period of renewed interest and high-energy fundraising, which brings the last four days' or so worth of pledging into a near mirror of the first four days, although not generally exceeding 7% of the total goal on the final day; i.e., the spike will be 3% of the total, 5%, 7%, and perhaps even as much as 10% on the last or next to last day.

If your calculations are correct we might not hit target

While the slowdown certainly is drastic, keep in mind it could have and most likely would have been a lot worse without the efforts of this community putting word out there (YouTube videos, posts on other forums, banners, word of mouth and the fans themselves making pledges). The almost immediate spike in pledges supporting the project no doubt stemmed from people's awareness. All there is to rely on now is passing trade because those who are aware of the project have more than likely made up their mind as to whether they will support it. For those who have, i'm guessing they'll be amongst the 35% so far collected with us.

Obviously, we or the guys need to do something bold to turn everyone's head in this direction. Maybe try to get more creative with the incentives, start calling in favors to anyone who can help advertise the kickstarter drive, auction off Chris and Aaron themselves , ANYTHING.

Seriously though, any ideas? It's not looking so hot right now and that just seems unbelievable. Is it possibly kickstarter-fatigue? People have already backed 5-10 games and are either broke or just done with it for now? Did the DLC and DRM issues really hurt donations that much? Was the pitch not strong enough, not enough information to inspire confidence in people? It would be very interesting to know the page count of unique visitors vs. the numbers of how many of those ended up actually donating and comparing that result with the results from other successful kickstarter game drives.

What do you guys think? Anything we can realistically do that can make a big splash, because honestly, I think that's what we need right now.

Seriously? It's too late now, but if I were launching the project, I wouldn't have had a $5.00 and $10.00 option, it's utterly pointless. I'm sorry, I know that seems a bit hard lined, but just take a look at the numbers.

By the way, I have a possible in with ZDNet, and while they're not known for their game reporting, they could feature an article on Kickstarter and mention Tex Murphy in it. I've reached out just to see if it would even be possible. I really hope it can happen and I'll keep ya'll updated.

You can always come down or add new incentives. It's really too early to gauge on the second day.

I would argue that these first 3-4 days are very telling of how the rest of the drive will go. If you look at statistics for other, already funded games on kicktraq, you can definitely see a pattern of how the first few days, and how much the percentage changes over those crucial first days, determine the success of the drive as a whole.

I'm certainly not implying that it's an absolute prediction. If I thought that then I wouldn't even be posting asking people for any ideas they have to better promote the drive. It was more of a way of saying that if something doesn't change or is added soon, the prospects don't look particular great at the moment.

RandomExile wrote: I've read a couple scholarly essays, one from a successful Kickstarter entrepreneur, the other from Kickstarter themselves, and I'm extrapolating from their data trends

well, i guess this is it!

*throws torch at RandomExile*

based on getting $5,000.00 per day till june 16 will only bring us to $312,000
so we are in trouble. we need $20,000 per day until 1st june which will take us over target & then the other 15 days so can go over target.

plumgas wrote:based on getting $5,000.00 per day till june 16 will only bring us to $312,000
so we are in trouble. we need $20,000 per day until 1st june which will take us over target & then the other 15 days so can go over target.

The trouble is that Kickstarter projects are allowed to have their page running for up to 60 days. Why did Chris and Aaron not just take advantage of this rather than settling for 31?

I don't know I was surprised when it didn't say 45 days. Could there be a higher fee for $45 days